FIELD GUIDE · AI, WORK & MONEY
The robots don't need to fire everybody to rewrite work. Watch the entry-level ladder, the task mix, and who pockets the productivity gain.
UPDATED 2026-10-12
TL;DR
01
The ILO's 2025 update estimates one in four workers worldwide sit in occupations with some generative-AI exposure, and says most affected jobs are more likely to be transformed than made redundant because human input remains necessary. A warning against turning task exposure into a headcount forecast.
02
An NBER study of 5,179 customer-support agents found AI assistance increased issues resolved per hour by 14% on average, with much larger gains for novice and lower-skilled workers. The productivity effects are real — and wildly uneven by worker and task.
03
A 2025 Stanford working paper using U.S. payroll data found workers ages 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations saw a 13% relative employment decline after controlling for firm-level shocks, while older workers in the same occupations were more stable. The authors call this early evidence consistent with an AI effect — not proof AI explains every hiring slowdown.
04
METR's randomized study of experienced open-source developers using early-2025 AI tools found they took 19% longer on the assigned tasks, despite believing they were faster. Benchmark capability and workplace productivity are not the same thing.
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💸 The guide’s stakeholder ledger, drawn as a money map.
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