01
U.S. DEMAND IS ALREADY LARGE
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's 2025 update estimates data centers could take 11.8% of U.S. electricity in 2030, with a scenario range of 9.5% to 15.3%. A system-scale planning problem, not a rounding error.
FIELD GUIDE · AI, POWER & THE GRID
THE AI BOOM'S POWER BILL IS DUE
They want gigawatts, water, land, and new power lines. Here's what the AI boom really costs the town it lands in — and what the town gets back.
UPDATED 2026-10-12
TL;DR
THE STORY SO FAR
02
GLOBAL DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO MORE THAN DOUBLE
The IEA's base case has electricity for data centers rising from about 460 TWh in 2024 to more than 1,000 TWh in 2030. Renewables cover nearly half the extra supply in that case — gas, coal, and nuclear cover the rest.
03
THE RANGE IS WIDE BECAUSE THE FUTURE ISN'T FIXED
DOE's 2024 report put U.S. data-center electricity at roughly 6.7% to 12% of total demand by 2028. Newer estimates moved again as planned capacity and AI hardware changed. Treat any single scary number as a scenario, not destiny.
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FROM THE FRONT PAGE + ZIMBO
UTILITY SERVICE BILL: AI DISTRICT
THE SERVER FARM MOVED IN NEXT DOOR
CUSTOMER: THE NEIGHBORHOOD. SERVICE: WHATEVER THE MACHINES NEED.
01U.S. LOAD
11.8% BY 2030LBL's central estimate for data centers' share of U.S. electricity use; scenario range: 9.5%–15.3%.LBNL · 202502GLOBAL LOAD
1,000+ TWhIEA base case for electricity serving data centers in 2030, up from about 460 TWh in 2024.IEA · 202503NEAR TERM
6.7%–12% BY 2028DOE's 2024 projection for the U.S. data-center share of electricity demand.U.S. DOE · 2024AMOUNT DUENOT YET ITEMIZEDThe server farm gets the compute. The neighborhood still has to find out who gets the bill.
WHO PAYS? WHO WINS?
💸 The guide’s stakeholder ledger, drawn as a money map.
KEEP READING
NEXT FIELD GUIDE →SHOULD AI COMPANIES GRADE THEIR OWN HOMEWORK?OpenAI and Anthropic publicly back independent safety audits — then fought over who gets to publish the findings. One week: a redacted incident report, the EU's first enforcement shot, Britain weighing binding laws, and the labs' own people begging to keep the monitoring on.MORE QUESTIONS
- WHY DOES PETER THIEL FEAR THE ANTICHRIST?
A billionaire who builds surveillance software fears a world government promising protection. Douthat pressed him in 2025. Then came the secret lectures, the pope, the AI safetyists — and an Iran-war break with Trump.
- DID THE FUTURE STOP IN 1970?
Peter Thiel made his fortune on the internet and keeps insisting the internet was not enough. Flying cars, Mars, AI, longevity and the meaning of progress — the other half of his worldview.
- IS THE U.S.-CHINA AI RACE MAKING ANYONE SAFER?
Washington is trying to choke off China's AI — chip bans, blacklists, and now Taiwan making smuggling a crime. Beijing just returned the favor, locking down its own AI exports. Meanwhile the models keep getting cheaper, better, and closer together. A field guide to the argument over whether the race protects anyone, or just speeds everything up.
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SOURCES
The argument changes completely depending on the grid, the water, and who gets the bill.
- U.S. DEMAND IS ALREADY LARGEUnited States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 UpdateLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- GLOBAL DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO MORE THAN DOUBLEEnergy and AI: Energy supply for AIInternational Energy Agency
- THE RANGE IS WIDE BECAUSE THE FUTURE ISN'T FIXEDDOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data CentersU.S. Department of Energy