CHRISTIANO PUTS NUMBERS ON DOOM: 22%, 20%, 46%
“Probability of an AI takeover: 22%. Probability that most humans die within 10 years of building powerful AI (powerful enough to make human labor obsolete): 20%. Probability that humanity has somehow irreversibly messed up our future within 10 years of building powerful AI: 46%.”
From Christiano's first-party post decomposing his AI risk beliefs into three separate probabilities, each conditioned on 'within 10 years of building powerful AI.' In the same post he warns the numbers 'really are just best guesses' and that he gives 'different numbers on different days.' The moderate anchor between the LeCun (~0%) and Yudkowsky (~100%) poles.
SOURCE
ORIGINAL SOURCEMy views on doomLessWrong (first-party post) (“My best guesses” section)