Ajeya Cotra
PUTTING NUMBERS ON AI DOOM
THE DEAL
Cotra became Open Philanthropy's first dedicated research hire and built one of the best-known quantitative forecasts for transformative AI — Open Phil's term (popularized by Holden Karnofsky) for AI that reshapes society as thoroughly as the industrial revolution did.
SOURCES: Effective Altruism ForumAjeya CotraAjeya CotraAjeya CotraAjeya Cotra
AT A GLANCE
- EDUCATION
- University of California, Berkeley · Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences · graduated earlyMETRAjeya Cotra
THE ARCHIVE
History · cartoons · headlines
THE TIMELINE7 sourced events
SHE TRIED TO PUT A DATE ON TRANSFORMATIVE AI
Cotra became Open Philanthropy's first dedicated research hire and built one of the best-known quantitative forecasts for transformative AI — Open Phil's term (popularized by Holden Karnofsky) for AI that reshapes society as thoroughly as the industrial revolution did. Her 'biological anchors' report turned fuzzy timeline vibes into explicit probabilities, forcing the field's core fight: is takeoff something you predict and engineer for, or something that happens to you? As her timelines shortened she moved from forecasting into alignment, and now works hands-on on loss-of-control evaluation at METR.
2015
BERKELEY EA PUTS HER ON OPEN PHIL'S RADAR
While studying electrical engineering and computer science at UC Berkeley, Cotra co-ran an effective-altruism course and interned with GiveWell. She later said the student work helped put her on GiveWell and Open Philanthropy's radar.
SOURCES: Effective Altruism ForumreportedAjeya Cotrafirst-party
Jul 2016
SHE BECOMES OPEN PHIL'S FIRST DEDICATED RESEARCH HIRE
After graduating early from Berkeley, Cotra joined Open Philanthropy full time. She later described herself as the first research employee hired specifically for Open Phil rather than for the combined GiveWell/Open Phil operation.
SOURCES: Effective Altruism ForumreportedAjeya Cotrafirst-party
Sep 18, 2020
SHE TRIES TO PUT A DATE ON TRANSFORMATIVE AI
Cotra released her draft biological-anchors report, a quantitative framework for estimating when the compute required for transformative AI might become affordable. The project became one of the best-known attempts to put explicit probabilities on advanced-AI timelines.
SOURCES: Ajeya Cotrafirst-party
2022
THE FORECAST GETS SHORTER — AND THE RISK MODEL GETS DARKER
Cotra published both an updated view of her AI timelines and a long argument that, without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI could lead to AI takeover. It staked her side of the field's sharpest live debate: alignment has to be deliberately engineered in before the leap, versus the racing instinct to scale now and sort it out later.
SOURCES: Ajeya Cotrafirst-partyAjeya Cotrafirst-party
Mar 26, 2023
SHE MOVES FROM FORECASTING INTO BUILDING THE SAFETY FIELD
Cotra launched Planned Obsolescence with Kelsey Piper while funding AI-alignment research at Open Philanthropy. The project was explicitly aimed at thinking ahead to a world in which AI systems could be making many of society's most important decisions.
SOURCES: Ajeya Cotrafirst-party
2024
SHE STARTS WRITING THE SAFETY CHECKS
Cotra led the technical AI safety program at what is now Coefficient Giving, shifting from individual forecasting toward deciding which research programs and grants might reduce risks from more capable AI systems.
SOURCES: METRreportedCoefficient Givingreported
2026
THE FORECASTER GOES INTO THE EVALUATION ROOM
Cotra joined METR's technical staff to work on threat modeling and loss-of-control risk assessment for advanced AI, moving from funding and forecasting safety work into directly evaluating evidence about frontier systems.
SOURCES: METRreported