Anthropic already owes $417 billion for chips — 13 years of sales

Anthropic has committed to paying at least $417 billion to rent chips and servers since late 2025, its prospectus shows — nearly 13 years of sales at its first-half 2026 pace, and the total could nearly double once cancellable or planned contracts are counted. The commitments are due no matter how the business performs, Anthropic warns.

The squeeze is the other half of the IPO story: model prices have collapsed — Morningstar puts the cost of processing the same text at the same performance down 97% since the end of 2024 — while open models trail closed ones by only about four months. The IMF fears a “triple whammy” if the bet sours: falling stocks, debts that are harder to repay, and promised revenue that never arrives.